aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/20/22 3:00 p.m.

Here is a good article on the current situation in the US oil industry.

I can't really post any specifics or even the title because it's obviously has some very political aspects to it.  It seems like a pretty objective overview though:

Current Oil Industry Article (Yahoo Finance)

There is a comment in there that seems to explain the refinery situation a bit:

...global refining capacity has fallen by 3 million barrels a day since 2020, which is about a 4% decline. In the United States, refining capacity has fallen by about 1 million barrels per day, or roughly 6%. With global demand for oil and oil products nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, that marginal refining shortfall is enough to create bottlenecks and jack up prices.

and this tidbit:

...restart refineries deemed to be money losers during the depths of 2020 while also asking those firms to invest in more capacity with no guarantee prices will stay high in a way such that they’ll earn a return on that investment.

 

There is also a linked article on US energy independence:

https://news.yahoo.com/the-myth-of-us-energy-independence-223017557.html

...With regard to oil, the main component in gasoline, the U.S. consumes more than it produces, and has for decades. Flatly stated, the United States is not oil-independent, and hasn’t been since the early days of oil production...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/29/22 1:33 p.m.

Just wanted to point out my little experiment (illogical price change on refinery maintenance in CA) was messed up by a general price drop right after the refinery shutdowns.  It might have actually happened, because prices did not drop very quickly (or at all, right after), but it's too hard to tell.  

As you may have noticed, prices have pushed down a bit recently, but that might not last long.  There apparently is a bit of jump in crude because of the recent discovery (by an open mic) that Saudi Arabia may not be able to increase production, even if wanted to.  Maybe back down again when when there is a realization that nothing has changed?

Although, looking at historical charts, Saudi Arabia appears to be about 1 million barrels below it's peak, and the US is also about a million below (both have peak production numbers about the same, 11 and 13 billion respectively), they both are above number from a few years ago (say 2018).  So, it does not seem like a huge deal, but the market is, as noted, is super fickle.

So, if this is a refinery issue in the US (as noted in the article above), there is little hope that will change soon (even if they wanted to) and I still don't really see how that is heavily affecting world oil/gas prices.  Yes, Russian oil has been removed from the western market, but it's clearly being sold to other markets... so.... I have no idea at this point (other than broad generalities), and no real reason why anything will change, for a while at least.

 

US crude production:

Saudi crude production (no idea what that sharp peak is):

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH MegaDork
7/5/22 2:56 p.m.

Well good news, oil has fallen below $100 a barrel, because the stock market's eating dirt:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/05/economy/oil-prices-100-barrel/index.html

Personally, I'd take cheap gas over expensive stock market poker chips every day and twice on Sunday though.

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
7/5/22 3:11 p.m.

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
7/5/22 4:15 p.m.

I paid $4.35 a gallon yesterday at a Texaco Station.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/5/22 5:00 p.m.
GameboyRMH said:

Well good news, oil has fallen below $100 a barrel, because the stock market's eating dirt:

No... clearly it is because a bunch of dufuses (dufi?) on the internet threatened to boycott gas. sad

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-boycott-called-gas-prices-153702044.html

Yeah... so just don't use gas... simple enough.  That'll show em!!!!

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) MegaDork
7/5/22 5:09 p.m.
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

E85 is always 10 cents cheaper than 87 here.

I do note that the places that sell CNG are at $2.19 per gallon-equivalent.  

Years ago, the shop where I worked was gearing up to do CNG conversions for fleets because of tax breaks and a lot of the benefits seen with EVs with respect to "fueling at home" and reduced maintenance.  The tax breaks didn't materialize and the conversions faltered, although we did convert the shop truck to dual fuel.

I bet a lot of people are regretting not doing the conversions, now.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
7/5/22 5:24 p.m.
aircooled said:

 

 

US crude production:

Saudi crude production (no idea what that sharp peak is):

That top graph.  Gee I wonder what caused that huge decline.

The bottom graph is easy to answer.  Saudi can literally provide as much as they want whenever they want.  
 

We could produce more too, but that's a different story.

Oil supply is being controlled as a means of control to achieve all sorts of global goals.  It's a game.  It's a club.  It's a big club and we ain't in it.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/5/22 5:41 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:
aircooled said:

 

That top graph.  Gee I wonder what caused that huge decline.

Well, effectively shutting down the world economy is going to have a pretty noticeable effect.

I am rather certain you are implying something else, but if you look closer at the graph you will see that, lets just say, something happened in Nov of 2019 (!) that might be predicted to effect future production, you can see in the chart linked below that production flattened at that point for a bit, then climbed to it's peak in Feb 2020, then dove after March (obviously for COVID).  

https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart

The bottom graph is easy to answer.  Saudi can literally provide as much as they want whenever they want.  

Not sure this is true.  They say, and others have noted (not absolute solid info here admittedly) that they are nearing peak production, refinery wise.  OPEC as a whole may be a slightly different story.

One thing I find interesting about the US graph is that the 2018 numbers are lower than current numbers.  Are we using that much more than 2018?  Is the world supply that much smaller?   Russian production is similar to US and SA, and as noted, it's IS going into the market (not sure how much), just not ours.

I won't disagree with you on the "game" part.   There is some weird (seemingly wildly irrational in some cases) crap going on.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
7/5/22 10:23 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

I didn't say anything, but gee I wonder on the top graph.  I know but saying it here will do too much harm.  
 

Again the 2nd graph, I know first hand.  I have the dead passport to prove it (ran out of pages).  Yes they are at their refining capacity, by design.  They also have a plan to make their resources last generations.  
 

We have enough oil to end this crisis immediately, but those that can choose not to.  It's a game, and it's a club, and we ain't in it.  
 

The sooner everyone wakes up to that fact the game ends.  That won't happen as long as you all are supposing my motivations and beliefs though.  That allows you to disavow simple reality.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
7/5/22 11:01 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to aircooled :

...Again the 2nd graph, I know first hand.  I have the dead passport to prove it (ran out of pages).  Yes they are at their refining capacity, by design.  They also have a plan to make their resources last generations....

OK, I see what you mean.

I mean realistically, they don't really have any good reason to make more.  They can make almost as much (or more) producing less (that of course goes for the rest of OPEC also), and as you note, do it for longer.

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress HalfDork
7/6/22 1:21 p.m.

Nothing to say other than thanks to aircooled for bringing data/charts. 

FWIW, just saw that prices have declined for 21 straight days because of lowered consumption (not increase in supply or because the stock market is tanking).

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-gas-prices-2020-pandemic-crude-oil-fuel-pump-russia-2022-7

 

 

kb58
kb58 SuperDork
7/7/22 11:16 a.m.
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

I was under the impression that cars get much worse mileage than just 2mpg, but I don't keep up on the market claims. Here in SoCal, E85 is a very strange thing to see. Pricewise it looks like a deal, but it doesn't square with the reduction in mileage I experience in my turbo car. Once that's taken into account, it's actually a net loss for cost/mile.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
7/7/22 11:53 a.m.
kb58 said:
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

I was under the impression that cars get much worse mileage than just 2mpg, but I don't keep up on the market claims. Here in SoCal, E85 is a very strange thing to see. Pricewise it looks like a deal, but it doesn't square with the reduction in mileage I experience in my turbo car. Once that's taken into account, it's actually a net loss for cost/mile.

I'm not sure I understand how its only a 2mpg difference as well.

Gasoline is 34.2MJ/L

E85 is 25.65MJ/L

 

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
7/7/22 12:00 p.m.
kb58 said:
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

I was under the impression that cars get much worse mileage than just 2mpg, but I don't keep up on the market claims. Here in SoCal, E85 is a very strange thing to see. Pricewise it looks like a deal, but it doesn't square with the reduction in mileage I experience in my turbo car. Once that's taken into account, it's actually a net loss for cost/mile.

Maybe he went from 8 mpg to 6. 

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia UltraDork
7/7/22 12:05 p.m.

87 octane at the cheap place in North Hollywood was $5.89 yesterday , 

Gas stations right off the freeway hit you at $6.29 for 87 octane.

on BBC radio they were saying petrol was about $9 a US gallon in the UK !

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
7/7/22 12:38 p.m.

It's down to $4.25 at the Texaco station near my house.

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) MegaDork
7/7/22 1:07 p.m.
ProDarwin said:
kb58 said:
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

I was under the impression that cars get much worse mileage than just 2mpg, but I don't keep up on the market claims. Here in SoCal, E85 is a very strange thing to see. Pricewise it looks like a deal, but it doesn't square with the reduction in mileage I experience in my turbo car. Once that's taken into account, it's actually a net loss for cost/mile.

I'm not sure I understand how its only a 2mpg difference as well.

Gasoline is 34.2MJ/L

E85 is 25.65MJ/L

 

Octane may have something to do with it, depending on the engine.

92 octane was worth a 5mpg bump on a car that got 37mpg on 87. YMMV of course, but an engine that has to run retarded from optimal timing will see an efficiency boost from higher octane.

 

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
7/7/22 1:19 p.m.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

True, I have seen different HP numbers from a manufacturer depending upon which fuel is being used. 

84FSP
84FSP UberDork
7/7/22 2:08 p.m.
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

My e85 swap on the CTS V was one of my favorite and financially advantageous mods.

84FSP
84FSP UberDork
7/7/22 2:10 p.m.
californiamilleghia said:

87 octane at the cheap place in North Hollywood was $5.89 yesterday , 

Gas stations right off the freeway hit you at $6.29 for 87 octane.

on BBC radio they were saying petrol was about $9 a US gallon in the UK !

Just got back from Italy, Germany, and France.  Prices ranged from 7.50/gal up to 9.25/gal on the stations I checked.  Ouch.  

Their electricity rates have much more dramatically risen 3-5x from what I understand.

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
7/7/22 2:29 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:
kb58 said:
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

I was under the impression that cars get much worse mileage than just 2mpg, but I don't keep up on the market claims. Here in SoCal, E85 is a very strange thing to see. Pricewise it looks like a deal, but it doesn't square with the reduction in mileage I experience in my turbo car. Once that's taken into account, it's actually a net loss for cost/mile.

Maybe he went from 8 mpg to 6. 

I've said normal 87 octane fuel mileage is around 22-24 mpg going to and from work 50/50 mix of freeway and driving around the lake.  ( summer time, winter drops it 2 mpg). 
      I get around 20-22  using E85.  
    With alcohol the timing is advanced rather than retarded.  If you do a little research you'll understand why.  Ask, I'll walk you through it or you can read about it here on GRM. ( Hot Rod etc. ) 
  Chances are there is a lot more E85  around you than you see.  There is a free AP that will find the nearest station for it  and almost none of them advertise  it. 
     

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
7/7/22 2:34 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

True, I have seen different HP numbers from a manufacturer depending upon which fuel is being used. 

Seat of the pants my pickup adds 50 hp with E85.   Using 87 octane  a flat foot on the freeway on ramp just accelerates me.
 Using E85 I've smoked my tires doing the same thing.  
  There is a reason Indy 500 uses 100% ethanol  and NASCAR USES 15% alcohol. 
The reason is added power and greater longevity.  

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
7/7/22 2:39 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
ProDarwin said:
kb58 said:
frenchyd said:

Around here 87 octane is $4.79 while E85 is $3.59. For a $1.20 less a gallon  and only 2 miles per gallon less.  I keep on buying E85. 

I was under the impression that cars get much worse mileage than just 2mpg, but I don't keep up on the market claims. Here in SoCal, E85 is a very strange thing to see. Pricewise it looks like a deal, but it doesn't square with the reduction in mileage I experience in my turbo car. Once that's taken into account, it's actually a net loss for cost/mile.

I'm not sure I understand how its only a 2mpg difference as well.

Gasoline is 34.2MJ/L

E85 is 25.65MJ/L

 

Octane may have something to do with it, depending on the engine.

92 octane was worth a 5mpg bump on a car that got 37mpg on 87. YMMV of course, but an engine that has to run retarded from optimal timing will see an efficiency boost from higher octane.

 

It's octane because E85 is 100+ octane  while premium is only 91-93 octane. 
 It's also because of the cooling effect of alcohol.  Pour some rubbing alcohol on your arm and feel how cool it feels.  
    The timing can be advanced significantly and the higher octane with cooler combustion won't knock or cause preignition.  

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
7/8/22 9:42 a.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

I was just ribbing you, frenchy.  I understand the thermodynamics of it, I was playing along with the joke. 

My objection to Ethanol for widespread use is that it's more carbon intensive than gasoline.  It takes pretty close to a gallon of ethanol's worth of energy to produce a gallon of ethanol.  That energy is locked up in the farming, distillation, and transportation of the fuel.  Meanwhile, the ratio for gasoline is something less than 1:10 to go from the ground to your tank. 

But yes, alcohol makes a fine racing fuel, if you can deal with the range limitations. 

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